In a recent episode of the Mac and Mike show, the duo stepped away from the usual headlines to tackle a fundamental question: Can we still trust the polls?
With the 2024 and 2025 election cycles behind us and the 2026 midterms on the horizon, the reliability of data has never been more scrutinized. Mac, drawing on his experience in the polling industry, breaks down why the “old way” of measuring public opinion is dead and why the real story is often hidden in the complex world of global strategy.
1. The Collapse of Traditional Polling
The transition from landlines to cell phones hasn’t just changed how we talk—it has fundamentally broken the “science” of polling.
The Landline Era vs. The Cell Phone Age
Mac explains that 30 years ago, a phone number was tied to a physical house. This gave pollsters access to a goldmine of demographic data:
- Known Identity: Party registration, age, and race were public records linked to that address.
- Psychographic Insight: Pollsters knew which magazines you subscribed to (e.g., National Geographic vs. NRA Sportsman) and what you watched on TV.
- Accuracy: This allowed for highly “projectable” samples that accurately reflected a district’s makeup.
Today, cell phones provide none of this metadata. People change numbers, move across state lines while keeping their old area codes, and—perhaps most importantly—block unknown callers. The result? A massive “non-response bias” where only a specific (and often non-representative) type of person actually answers the phone.
“Push” vs. “Pull” Polls
Mac also highlights the danger of internet polling.
- Pull Polls: These are hosted on websites like MSNBC or Fox News. They only attract the people already visiting those sites, creating an echo chamber rather than a survey.
- Push Polls: These are designed to lead the respondent to a specific answer through loaded questions.
Key Takeaway: If you don’t know how the question was asked or who was sampled, the poll is likely “garbage.”
2. Geopolitics: The 4D Chess Behind the Headlines
Mike and Mac shift the conversation to the often-misunderstood logic of the Trump administration’s policies, arguing that what looks like “hyperbole” is often calculated strategy.
The Greenland Doctrine
While the media often laughed at the idea of “buying Greenland,” Mac points out the cold, hard logic:
- Resources: Greenland is rich in minerals and natural resources that the U.S. wants to keep out of the hands of competitors.
- Defense: It houses Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), our northernmost defense post.
- China: Preventing Chinese mining installations in Greenland is a matter of national security, not just real estate.
Energy as a Weapon of Peace
One of the most provocative points made is the U.S. strategy regarding Venezuela and China.
Mac argues that by squeezing the oil supply from Venezuela and Iran, the U.S. isn’t trying to “steal oil” (since the U.S. is already energy-independent). Instead, it’s about denying China “discount oil.” By forcing China to pay market prices, the U.S. weakens China’s “war machine” and its ability to threaten Taiwan—all without firing a single shot.
3. The Psychology of the “Never-Trumper”
Mike discusses his personal experiences with “political orphans”—former Republicans who have completely abandoned the party. He attributes this to two main factors:
- Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS): A high-emotion response that Mike argues “eradicates skills” and prevents critical thinking.
- “Suicidal Empathy”: The idea that people have so much empathy for perceived “niceness” or “correctness” that they support policies that eventually hurt their own long-term interests.
Conclusion: Look Beyond the Surface
The episode ends with a call to action for the audience: Stop looking at the surface and start understanding the underlying facts. Whether it’s the “sloppy language” of a New York businessman or a poll that says one candidate is up by 10 points, there is always a deeper layer of logic to be found.
What do you think? Is polling dead, or are we just looking at the wrong data?
Watch the Full Discussion
- 0:00 – Intro: Getting off the mainstream subject
- 4:15 – The Cell Phone Problem: Why modern polling is a “crapshoot”
- 12:20 – The Greenland Strategy: It’s not “sloppy language,” it’s history
- 22:55 – Geopolitical 4D Chess: Denying China’s war machine
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